CASE STUDY
UK
REMOTE
Education | UK Independent School
Bank-ready cashflow clarity built before a debt maturity wall closed in
✅ 52-week direct basis cashflow forecast structured across three school term
✅ Scenario analysis covering bad debt, fee reductions, and falling pupil numbers
✅ Delivered to governors and taken directly into early bank discussions
THE BUSINESS
A UK independent school navigating the perfect storm of sector-wide financial pressure
A UK independent school with multiple properties and a long-established reputation, now facing the full weight of structural changes hitting the independent education sector simultaneously. VAT on school fees, the removal of business rates relief, parents shifting away from annual upfront payments, and a meaningful drop in pupil numbers, this school was dealing with all of it at once, and the governors knew the financial position was deteriorating faster than they could manage alone.
THE SITUATION
Pupil numbers falling, a debt maturity wall approaching, and no forecast robust enough to take to the bank
The governors had a clear picture of the problem but not a clear path through it. Pupil numbers were declining sharply, compressing revenue at exactly the point when costs, including a new business rates liability, were rising. The school held significant assets in the form of buildings, some of which it could sell. But converting those assets to cash would take roughly 18 months, and the bank debt maturity wall was arriving well before that.
To have any constructive conversation with the bank, to negotiate breathing room around the maturity, or to present a credible repayment plan tied to the building disposals, the governors needed a detailed, assumption-backed cashflow forecast. Not monthly summaries, but a week-by-week picture that showed exactly what the cash position looked like across the year ahead.
The bursar was already across the numbers and producing monthly forecasts. But running the school's finances (fee collections, day-to-day financial management, chasing arrears) left little capacity to build the kind of granular model the bank conversation required. The governors brought me in to get it done.
WHAT WE DELIVERED
A 52-week direct basis forecast with scenario analysis, packaged for the bank and delivered on short notice
We built a direct basis 52-week cashflow forecast structured around the school's three upcoming terms, tracking net cash flows, closing cash position, and closing liquidity position week on week. The distinction between cash and liquidity was important here. The school held restricted funds in the form of parent deposits, money that had historically been gifted back to the school when pupils left, and used for things like bursaries. Under current conditions, parents are increasingly requesting those deposits back in cash, or offsetting them against outstanding fee balances. Both reduce available liquidity faster than the cash balance alone would suggest, and the model made that visible week by week.
On top of the base forecast, we layered scenario analysis, stress-testing for additional bad debt, further pupil number declines, and potential fee reductions. The full output was packaged into a presentation deck showing week-on-week net cashflow, closing cash, and closing liquidity across each scenario. The governors received the work, and the chair of the finance committee took it directly into early discussions with the bank, giving them a structured, credible basis for a conversation about managing the approaching maturity wall.
The governors were pleased with both the quality of the work and the speed at which it was delivered. The engagement has since been extended: the school has now commissioned a further two-year projection to give the bank a longer-term view, including the timing and expected proceeds from the building disposals, the planned debt refinancing, and the future cashflow profile as pupil numbers stabilise. The goal is to give the bank enough forward visibility to approach the restructuring as a managed process rather than an emergency.